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Oil Breaks Resistance, May Climb to $90: Technical Analysis

Crude oil has breached a key resistance level of $76.28 a barrel, giving it the “capacity” to rise to just under $90 based on Fibonacci retracements, Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. said.
Oil, which is trading near a one-year high in New York, is “taking a pause” to consolidate before moving up toward $89.85 a barrel, said Geoff Clear , the Singapore-based head of Asian commodities at ANZ.

“We saw a break above $76.28 a barrel -- that was the big ‘break up’ level,” Clear said. “We’re in a new range.”

Crude prices have surged 83 percent since March 5 while the Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against those of six major U.S. trading partners, has fallen 16 percent since then. The sliding U.S. dollar and a recovery in equity markets prompted investors to buy commodities as an inflation hedge.

Crude may encounter its next resistance level at $83.60, according to Clear.

“If we start to get close to the $83.60 level, it’s the next targeted Fibonacci retracement that I can see in the market,” Clear said. “Prices will do a bit of work below $83.60 initially, and then we’ll go on from there.”

Crude oil for November delivery was at $79.75 a barrel, up 14 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:43 a.m. Singapore time. Prices settled at $79.61 yesterday, the highest close since Oct. 13, 2008.

The November contract expires today. The more actively traded December contract was at $80.06 a barrel, up 10 cents, at 9:46 a.m. in Singapore.

Source:
Bloomberg.com